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Every estimate comes with detailed analysis of factors which investors and companies need to figure out how to spend money
That’s a lot of nuanced important information that you’d want to have when you are making decisions as an operator in these markets
They would be making jobs of their contributors harder because they have individual sources of information to draw from
Most forecasters aren’t worried because they do more than predict numbers
They have been hesitant
Justin Wolfers has told Fed officials that they should take those markets into consideration
Surprises happen people want to know what does this mean what’s going to happen what’s driving it
If they replace all of that they won’t have those to also go to
Betting markets are just following the experts on quantitative questions
If crowd were to supplant professional forecasters individual bettors would lose out
Tara Sinclair an economist at George Washington University agrees that is likely
D.C. people say they will get the budget done
Most traders are not good at everything
Kalshi won a lawsuit allowing it to operate legally in 2024
US regulators cracked down ruling that they were operating as illegal gambling platforms in 2010s
Intrade focused on elections and world events and were fairly accurate
More than $60 million is at stake on platforms on political and economic questions on any given day
Getting information from a large pool of people can be a good form of forecasting Jonathan Wright said
Analysts may avoid publishing earnings forecasts that are out of the norm
Prediction markets incentivize you to state your true beliefs