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The author contacted close to 1000 reporters via email or phone
Interpret results from Delaware Hawaii Iowa Kansas Montana Nebraska and New Hampshire cautiously
Reporters’ ideological beliefs might also affect their perceptions
Legislative branches in Arkansas and Kentucky score higher than 4
The author surveyed reporters to construct perception-based indices measuring illegal and legal corruption across American states
Reporters’ perceptions are not direct evidence of corruption
The response scale ranged from not at all common to extremely common
The author started surveying news reporters covering state politics in 2014
The author received 240 responses
The author received no responses from North Dakota
Artificial intelligence can synthesize large amounts of standardized information to come up with reasonably good estimates
They work collaboratively but ultimately cast their own votes
That’s where space for humans will remain
When data is sparse and environment is in flux machines are backward looking by definition
Warren Hatch thinks prediction markets complement his group’s services because they focus on shorter-term questions and expand use of probabilistic thinking
Right now senior economist has a ton of power
Neither individual experts nor collective of thousands are best at predicting future
Over past decade Good Judgment has developed model of selecting people with good track records of figuring out what will happen
If you were to do this you democratize decision making
Their view goes