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First online prediction markets emerged in early 2000s
Anonymous online gamblers expected to see 54000 new jobs
Economists expected the latest jobs report to show about 68000 jobs added last month
The crowd is good at predicting interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and better than professionals at predicting inflation rate
Congress determined Federal Reserve can best achieve its mission as independent agency without politics
Should Fed change course give in to political pressure history does not bode well for US inflation
Senator Elizabeth Warren urged Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to move more rapidly to bring down interest rates during testimony February 2025
New presidential authority includes Fed's role in regulation of banking system but excludes setting of monetary policy
Trump administration asserted intent to exercise greater Presidential supervision and control of entire executive branch including independent agencies in two executive orders issued February 18 and February 19 2025
President Trump pledged to demand interest rates drop immediately in Davos speech January 2025
Increase in political pressure by half as much as Nixon's pressure for six months raises US price level more than 8%
Researchers have documented evidence from the Nixon tapes that President Richard Nixon pressured then chairman of the Federal Reserve Arthur Burns to engage in expansionary monetary policies in the run-up to the 1972 election
Political pressure shocks mainly occurred during 1970s also in 1960s during Johnson administration
Bill Clinton met only 6 times with Fed officials during his 8-year presidency
Richard Nixon had 160 meetings during his 6 years in office
The president might also instruct cabinet members or members of Congress to talk to Fed officials and persuade them to change policy
One recent study looked at President Trump’s tweets regarding the Fed from the launch of his presidential campaign in 2015 to 2021
There is some evidence that this type of pressure can have an effect