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The Iranian military has a dual architecture: Artesh and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
They are not just loyalists of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
The Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force is well positioned to organize militias again
Recent protests are similar and different from previous ones
Bombing campaigns could destroy infrastructure in Iran but the US would have to fight a standing military and a system with experience in asymmetric warfare for regime change
There are no defections in the military or security realms
The Islamic Republic is structured for siege
They are woven into a deeper idea of the state and are committed to Iran's independence
Networks were established across Afghanistan Iraq Syria and Lebanon to sow instability
The Islamic Republic government has reestablished control over Iran after protests and shows no signs of immediate collapse
Narges Bajoghli does not see signs of imminent regime change
Revolution that once promised purification is eroding from within sharply at odds with society that has modernized embraced contemporary ideals and demands governance aligned with its aspirations
The Islamic Republic stands at history's crossroads between authoritarian resilience and systemic collapse between accommodation and confrontation between survival and revolutionary transformation
Moderates and civil society actors have long proposed reforms to reshape Iran's institutions yet their calls have gone largely unheeded
Widespread economic hardship corruption and unfulfilled promises of social justice have compounded discontent
Regime has survived extraordinary challenges since 1979 demonstrating resilience that should caution against confident predictions of failure
Educated and globally connected this generation rejects notion that authority from 1979 justifies authoritarian control in 2026
Predicting Iran’s trajectory remains perilous
Cracks surface within conservative base as loyalists grow disillusioned by costly regional adventures and domestic stagnation
Most likely near-term outcome may be managed crisis regime maintains control through its security apparatus IRGC and its paramilitary volunteer militia the Baseej while engaging in tactical diplomacy seeking to prevent renewed strikes protests continue at lower intensity and international pressure persists without producing either breakthrough or breakdown