Trending claims

Currently most regional actors are pushing for diplomatic solution to avoid war and its spillover effects

There is very little trust between U.S. and Iran especially since 12-Day War

Turkey Saudi Arabia Qatar and Oman are putting pressure on Trump administration not to launch strikes or engage in more confrontation with Iran because spillover effects across region are going to be bad for their national security

Leaders across region are worried because it could spark major regional confrontation

Two options are either military confrontation or some kind of diplomatic deal

Iran's situation is much different from a year and a half ago

We saw that in 12-Day War last June

Some within administration and some allies want confrontation but president doesn’t seem to like prolonged long-term foreign interventions

Iran sees this as existential conflict and retains significant ability to inflict damage on U.S. assets and allies across region even despite it being battered over past year

President sent a very large armada to Iran recently

Turkey and Saudi Arabia see Israel becoming bolder in region and they are hedging against that

The Woman Life Freedom movement gained the biggest concessions by making the mandatory hijab a non-issue

The core issue of economic grievances and involvement of the working class is similar to 2018 and 2019 uprisings

It is different from the 2023 Woman Life Freedom movement

Since 2009 large segments of Iran's population have called for down with the dictator in nearly every protest movement

Israel has weakened existing militias but Tehran retains the ability to foment militias against American interests

The current uprisings did not start from existing spaces of civic and political organization

Outpouring of rage over economic situation turned into calls for downfall of regime

Level of violence primarily by state and willingness of some protestors to take up armed resistance is a departure from mass movements in past 20 years in Iran

Networks were established across Afghanistan Iraq Syria and Lebanon to sow instability