Middle East Institute

Iran relies on China to buy its exported oil.

“Externally, Iran survives through Chinese oil imports, which blunt the impact of Western sanctions.”

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany triggered the United Nations’ crippling 'snapback' sanctions.

If the snapback provision expires on Termination Day without sanctions being reimposed, the Security Council will lose its last viable mechanism to penalize Iran for nuclear violations.

“First, Resolution 2231’s snapback window disappears on Oct. 18, after which any effort to reimpose sanctions would require fresh Security Council votes, vulnerable to Moscow or Beijing’s veto.”

The United States should lead efforts to extend the snapback mechanism for six months.

The United States should seize the initiative and press both its European allies and Iran to extend the snapback mechanism.

On August 28, Britain, France, and Germany (the E3) formally declared Iran in 'significant non-performance' of its nuclear obligations under the Iran nuclear deal.

“On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the “E3”) announced they will trigger the “snapback” mechanism under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231, formally initiating a 30-day process that is likely to culminate in the full restoration of all UN sanctions lifted under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). ... Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 JCPOA, allows any participant state to declare Iran in “significant non-performance.””

Iran has become exceptionally skilled at using shadow banking, intermediary shipping labels, and regional barter to circumvent Western restrictions.

“Iran has become exceptionally skilled at using shadow banking, intermediary shipping labels, and regional barter to circumvent Western restrictions”

Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 JCPOA, allows any participant state to declare Iran in “significant non-performance.”

“Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 JCPOA, allows any participant state to declare Iran in “significant non-performance.””

The E3 offered a one-time six-month extension of the snapback deadline if Iran met conditions such as restoring IAEA monitoring and accounting for enriched uranium stockpiles.

“The International Crisis Group notes that the E3 offered a one-time six-month extension of the snapback deadline if Iran met conditions such as restoring IAEA monitoring and accounting for enriched uranium stockpiles — but Tehran rejected the proposal.”

Iran’s crude shipments to China reached a record high in June 2025, averaging up to 1.8 million barrels per day.

“Recent data confirms that Iran’s crude shipments to China reached a record high in June 2025, averaging up to 1.8 million barrels per day”

Iran remains convulsed by internal political divides, economic crises, and the lingering fallout from Israel’s and the United States’ strikes on key nuclear facilities.

“Meanwhile, Iran remains convulsed by internal political divides, economic crises, and the lingering fallout from Israel’s and the United States’ strikes on key nuclear facilities.”

The decision, immediately endorsed by the United States, marks a sharp escalation in Europe’s effort to constrain Tehran.

“The decision, immediately endorsed by the United States, marks a sharp escalation in Europe’s effort to constrain Tehran”

On Oct. 18, the E3’s legal capacity to trigger snapback unilaterally will expire.

“On Oct. 18, the E3’s legal capacity to trigger snapback unilaterally will expire”

On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the “E3”) announced they will trigger the “snapback” mechanism under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231.

“On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the “E3”) announced they will trigger the “snapback” mechanism under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231”

The three European governments have warned that they will reinstate wide-reaching sanctions on Iran by the end of August if they do not see a path toward renegotiating a landmark deal.