Middle East Institute

Iran relies on China to buy exported oil

“Externally, Iran survives through Chinese oil imports, which blunt the impact of Western sanctions.”

United Kingdom France and Germany triggered United Nations snapback sanctions

Security Council will lose mechanism to penalize Iran if snapback expires

“First, Resolution 2231’s snapback window disappears on Oct. 18, after which any effort to reimpose sanctions would require fresh Security Council votes, vulnerable to Moscow or Beijing’s veto.”

The United States should lead efforts to extend snapback mechanism for six months

The United States should press allies and Iran to extend snapback mechanism

Britain France and Germany declared Iran in significant non-performance of nuclear obligations

“On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the “E3”) announced they will trigger the “snapback” mechanism under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231, formally initiating a 30-day process that is likely to culminate in the full restoration of all UN sanctions lifted under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). ... Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 JCPOA, allows any participant state to declare Iran in “significant non-performance.””

Iran is skilled at using shadow banking and barter to circumvent Western restrictions

“Iran has become exceptionally skilled at using shadow banking, intermediary shipping labels, and regional barter to circumvent Western restrictions”

Resolution 2231 allows any participant state to declare Iran in significant non-performance

“Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 JCPOA, allows any participant state to declare Iran in “significant non-performance.””

The E3 offered a six-month extension of snapback deadline if Iran met certain conditions

“The International Crisis Group notes that the E3 offered a one-time six-month extension of the snapback deadline if Iran met conditions such as restoring IAEA monitoring and accounting for enriched uranium stockpiles — but Tehran rejected the proposal.”

Iran's crude shipments to China reached a record high in June 2025 averaging 1.8 million barrels per day

“Recent data confirms that Iran’s crude shipments to China reached a record high in June 2025, averaging up to 1.8 million barrels per day”

Iran is convulsed by political divides economic crises and fallout from strikes on nuclear facilities

“Meanwhile, Iran remains convulsed by internal political divides, economic crises, and the lingering fallout from Israel’s and the United States’ strikes on key nuclear facilities.”

The US endorsed the E3's decision marking a sharp escalation in efforts to constrain Tehran

“The decision, immediately endorsed by the United States, marks a sharp escalation in Europe’s effort to constrain Tehran”

The E3's legal capacity to trigger snapback unilaterally will expire on Oct 18

“On Oct. 18, the E3’s legal capacity to trigger snapback unilaterally will expire”

The E3 announced they will trigger snapback under UNSC Resolution 2231 on Aug 28

“On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the “E3”) announced they will trigger the “snapback” mechanism under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231”

Three European governments warned they will reinstate sanctions on Iran by end of August