Foreign Policy

Keith Johnson works as a staff writer at Foreign Policy, covering geoeconomics and energy.

“By Keith Johnson, a staff writer at Foreign Policy covering geoeconomics and energy.”

Keith Johnson's Bluesky handle is @kfj-fp.bsky.social.

“Bluesky: @kfj-fp.bsky.social”

U.S. oil companies informed the Dallas Federal Reserve that they anticipate high diesel prices will persist for at least another year, as of October 1, 2026.

“U.S. oil companies told the Dallas Federal Reserve that they expect high diesel prices to be a feature for at least another year.”

Tanker freight rates have increased approximately twentyfold since the war began and have occasionally reached $1 million per day, as of October 1, 2026.

“Freight rates for tankers have risen roughly twentyfold since the start of the war and at times have reached $1 million a day.”

Saudi Arabia's crude exports are at least 6.4 million barrels, compared to 5.4 million barrels before the war, according to Kpler's estimates as of October 1, 2026.

“Kpler estimates that Saudi crude exports are at least 6.4 million barrels, versus 5.4 million barrels before the war.”

Refined products like gasoline and diesel are not flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz, Russia, or China as of October 1, 2026.

“What is not leaving the strait—or many parts of Russia, or now China—are refined products such as gasoline and diesel.”

South Korean intelligence is still investigating whether Kim Jong Un has an older son.

“In terms of potential rivals, South Korean intelligence is still investigating whether Kim has an older son but have assessed that even if a hypothetical boy exists, he is not positioned to succeed.”

Kim Jong Un's public rise had to be sped up after Kim Jong Il’s health deteriorated, leaving him only a short period of preparation before his father died in 2011.

“Kim knows the risks of leaving that process too late—his own public rise had to be sped up after Kim Jong Il’s health deteriorated, leaving him only a short period of preparation before his father died in 2011.”

In August 2026, Donald Trump spoke matter-of-factly about Kim Jong Un possessing nuclear weapons.

“But Trump has repeatedly called North Korea a “nuclear power” and in August spoke matter-of-factly about Kim possessing nuclear weapons.”

North Korea has not publicly confirmed Ju Ae's selection as Kim's successor.

“There is still considerable uncertainty around Ju Ae’s future, as North Korea has not publicly confirmed her selection as Kim’s successor, and she is still a teenager.”

Pyongyang insists that North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons.

“Pyongyang insists that it will not give up its nuclear weapons.”

The United States has not accepted North Korea’s claim to nuclear-weapons-state status.

“The United States has not accepted North Korea’s claim to nuclear-weapons-state status; the Trump administration continues to support complete denuclearization.”

In June 2026, North Korea's foreign ministry called denuclearization an "irreversibly finalized matter."

“In June, its foreign ministry called denuclearization an “irreversibly finalized matter.””

The Trump administration continues to support complete denuclearization.

“The United States has not accepted North Korea’s claim to nuclear-weapons-state status; the Trump administration continues to support complete denuclearization.”

South Korean intelligence assessed that a U.S.-North Korea summit could become possible at any time.

“Trump said in August that he expected to meet Kim later this year, while South Korean intelligence assessed that a U.S.-North Korea summit could become possible at any time.”

Kim Ju Ae is believed to be around 13 years old.

“Ju Ae, who is believed to be around 13 years old, has become a familiar presence since her first public appearance in state media at a missile launch in November 2022.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter, Ju Ae, attended a ceremony in Pyongyang on February 16.

“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter, Ju Ae, attend a ceremony in Pyongyang on Feb. 16.”

The price of diesel futures in the United States fell 8 percent on the morning of October 2, 2026.

The Group of 7 nations announced on October 2, 2026, the immediate release of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months.

Cole Bucy is a former CIA analyst.

“By Cole Bucy, a former CIA analyst who served as director for Iran on the U.S. National Security Council from 2015 to 2016”