CSIS

Following a May 2026 summit in Beijing, President Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet again at the White House in September 2026.

“Following President Trump and President Xi Jinping’s May summit in Beijing, the two leaders are set to meet again this September at the White House.”

In May interviews, President Trump's discussion of Taiwan closely mirrored language used by Xi Jinping.

“Taiwan will be more concerned about how Trump refers to the island, still smarting from his May interviews in which the president’s discussion of Taiwan closely mirrored Xi’s language, suggesting that Trump had accepted Chinese framing that Taiwan’s President Lai and the pursuit of independence was the problem that was forcing Beijing to respond.”

The tariff differential between Southeast Asian countries and China has declined significantly, reducing the incentive for companies to move production out of China.

“Southeast Asian countries will be watching warily for any announcements on tariffs, as the current differential between them and China has declined significantly enough to reduce the impetus for multinational and Chinese firms to move production out of China.”

President Trump dismissively rejected the Reagan-era 'Six Assurances' and stated that arms sales to Taiwan are a 'negotiating chip'.

“Trump’s dismissive rejection of the Reagan-era “Six Assurances” and explicit statement that arms sales to Taiwan are a “negotiating chip” caused great worry, as does the sense that a growing number of Americans are coming out of the woodwork to parrot the PRC’s case that Taiwan is a strategic liability for the United States rather than a partner with shared values and a dominant position in high-end computer chips.”

Prior to 2025, Taiwan's president made transits through the United States once or twice per year.

“Taiwan’s leaders and public will also be watching for any suggestion that the president made any commitments to Xi about Taiwan, particularly delaying arms sales and restricting transits of the United States (which happened once or twice a year prior to 2025) by Taiwan’s president.”

Edgard D. Kagan is a senior advisor and the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

“Edgard D. Kagan is senior advisor and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.”

China has conducted increasing attacks on Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and has made efforts to accuse Japan of rising militarism.

“Japan is frustrated that the United States has not provided more support in the face of increasing Chinese attacks on Prime Minister Takaichi and efforts to accuse Japan of rising militarism.”

President Trump visited Beijing for a summit in May 2026.

“President Trump wants to highlight his personal relationship with Xi while showcasing the United States through extensive pomp and circumstance, matching what China offered during the May summit in Beijing.”

India hosted Xi Jinping's first visit for a BRICS summit since the 2020 Galwan incident.

“India, having just hosted Xi’s first visit for the BRICS summit since the 2020 Galwan incident, worries that much improved U.S.-China ties leave it in a weaker strategic position vis-à-vis both China and Pakistan.”

A U.S.-China arms control dialogue was suspended in 2024.

“Xi will offer to improve military-to-military communication and propose the resumption of an arms control dialogue suspended in 2024.”

China is seeking U.S. approval for $30 billion of low- or zero-tariff exports, which it believes was promised in May 2026.

“In addition to an extension of the trade truce, China will be seeking to get approval for $30 billion of low- or zero-tariff exports to the United States, which it believes was promised in May, and would also like signals that the White House will approve PRC investments into the United States, particularly in electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, and other technology.”

President Trump made a unilateral announcement to scale back U.S.-Republic of Korea military exercises.

“The president will also likely raise North Korea, highlighting his unilateral announcement scaling back U.S.-Republic of Korea military exercises (which China has long called for) as well as his call for another meeting with Kim Jong-un.”

The U.S. State Department has declared U.S. citizens Min Zin and Chen Youlin as 'wrongfully detained'.

“The president is also likely to seek release of U.S. citizens Min Zin and Chen Youlin, both of whom have been declared “wrongfully detained” by the State Department, and may also push for the release of jailed Hong Kong media owner Jimmy Lai, which he reportedly raised with Xi in May.”

There have been successful U.S.-China efforts to combat the flow of fentanyl to the United States dating back to 2023.

“The president will also likely call for more PRC actions to combat the flow of fentanyl to the United States, building on successful efforts going back to 2023.”

The Chinese Communist Party’s Fifth Plenum is scheduled for October 2026, where the next slate of CCP leaders will be discussed.

“It will provide a lift going into the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s Fifth Plenum in October, where the next slate of CCP leaders will be discussed.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rejected China's request for a two-year extension of the trade truce and reportedly offered only a six-month extension.

“That said, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rejected the PRC’s request for a two-year extension of the trade truce and reportedly offered only six months, reflecting the president’s instinct that China’s desire for a longer truce may create leverage for the United States.”

There is some evidence that Chinese entities provided targeting information that resulted in the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan.

“He may also call on China to halt intelligence sharing with Iran (including by supposedly “private” Chinese entities), though Trump has pushed back on this in public despite some evidence that Chinese entities provided targeting information that led to the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan.”

President Trump reportedly raised the issue of jailed Hong Kong media owner Jimmy Lai with Chairman Xi Jinping in May 2026.

“The president is also likely to seek release of U.S. citizens Min Zin and Chen Youlin, both of whom have been declared “wrongfully detained” by the State Department, and may also push for the release of jailed Hong Kong media owner Jimmy Lai, which he reportedly raised with Xi in May.”

In the four months prior to September 2026, growing friction with U.S. allies in Europe, Canada, and Asia weakened the U.S. position.

“The continuing conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz without a plausible path to resolution has distracted Trump as well as hurt U.S. credibility globally, while growing friction with key U.S. allies and partners in Europe, Canada, and Northeast and Southeast Asia in the past four months has also weakened the U.S. hand.”

As of September 2026, an ongoing conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hurt U.S. global credibility.

“The continuing conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz without a plausible path to resolution has distracted Trump as well as hurt U.S. credibility globally, while growing friction with key U.S. allies and partners in Europe, Canada, and Northeast and Southeast Asia in the past four months has also weakened the U.S. hand.”