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Trending CLM-C29A6B90

AI-extracted claim

“Polymarket bettors forecast corporate earnings more accurately than analysts”
The New York Times by Lydia DePillis View original article

Analyzed on 2026-09-17T22:43:07+00:00 · Last updated 2026-09-17

Unverified (Unverified)

Plain language: Insufficient evidence was found to render a verdict.

Credibility score

out of 100

Based on 1 source

Low confidence

01

Original context

Show passage from source article
Another working paper, by economists at the London Business School and Yale University, found that Polymarket bettors as a whole forecast corporate earnings more accurately than the analysts who are paid to advise investors on whether to buy or sell.

Extracted from: Kalshi and Polymarket Create New Competition for Professional Economists , The New York Times

02

Evidence

1 support 0 contradict 0 context

This analysis is based on a single source. Confidence is low.

The New York Times nytimes.com credibility 0.85 Supports

“Another working paper, by economists at the London Business School and Yale University, found that Polymarket bettors as a whole forecast corporate earnings more accurately than the analysts who are paid to advise investors on whether to buy or sell.”

Kalshi and Polymarket Create New Competition for Professional Economists

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Bias distribution of supporting sources

← Left Center Right →

Mean bias -0.20

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Metadata

Claim ID CLM-C29A6B90
Slug polymarket-bettors-forecast-corporate-earnings-more-accurate-c29a6b90
Origin nytimes.com
Captured 214 d ago
Velocity 0.0/hr
Bias 0.00
Economics Corporate Earnings Forecasting