“The large death toll from the recent protest wave had deepened longstanding tensions between Iran’s reformist leaders and their base, which has grown increasingly disillusioned with the Islamic Republic and sought a tougher stance toward the country’s rulers.”

Iran Detains Opposition Leaders Following Talks with Trump Administration

“The large number of deaths, most over the span of three nights in early January — the deadliest unrest in Iran’s contemporary history, according to rights groups and a historian — has left many Iranians shocked. ... The government’s ongoing crackdown and arrests of dissidents, including prominent political figures in the reformist faction, contribute to the sense that the standoff is not yet over. ... Protests demanding the ouster of Iran’s authoritarian clerical rulers have ended. But many Iranians say that feelings of rage against the government and anxiety about the future permeate all aspects of life, and that nothing feels normal anymore.”

Iran’s Protests Have Ended, but the Anger and Pain Haven’t

“We just witnessed massive nationwide protests in Iran followed by an unprecedented massacre by state forces, the largest in Iran’s modern history. With the build-up of U.S. military assets in the region, the Trump administration aims to continue maximizing pressure on Tehran. However, the narrative being built—that the regime is ready to be toppled at any point, and that a U.S. strike would deal a death blow to the Islamic Republic—does not reflect the reality on the ground. The Islamic Republic is structured for siege. Bombing campaigns could significantly destroy military and civilian infrastructure in Iran, but for regime change, the U.S. would have to be prepared to fight not just a standing military in a country the size of Western Europe, but a system with decades of experience in asymmetric warfare. American analysts often underestimate the strength of the Iranian regime, which is structured for survival. The Iranian military has a dual architecture designed to resist coups and invasions: Artesh, the regular armed forces of around 420,000 men across ground, naval, air, and air-defense forces, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite, ideologically driven military with roughly 190,000 personnel across ground, naval, and air branches. Beyond them are vast paramilitary networks with hundreds of thousands of members embedded in every corner of Iranian society—across rural and urban areas, in neighborhoods, in the streets, and in schools. They aren’t just loyalists of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They are woven into a deeper idea of the state and are committed to the independence of Iran from outside powers. If a regime is going to change or collapse, you need to see its main institutions of power either buckling under pressure or experiencing huge defections, especially at the elite levels. You also need to see other nodes of power poised to fill the vacuum. We don’t see any indications of that at this point. There are no defections in the military or security realms. No defections are even happening across the political spectrum of the Islamic Republic itself. “If a regime is going to change or collapse, you need to see its main institutions of power either buckling under pressure or experiencing huge defections, especially at the elite levels. You also need to see other nodes of power poised to fill the vacuum. We don’t see any indications of that at this point.” Instead of traditional regime change, the outcome could be state or regime collapse. But what comes next will likely not be surrender. The Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, which helped organize militias across the region to bleed American troops in Iraq, is well positioned to do so again. These networks were established across Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to sow instability in the region. Israel has significantly weakened the existing militias, but Tehran retains the ability to foment militias against American interests in the region. This is one of the main reasons we’re seeing other regional actors so heavily involved in mediating efforts between the U.S. and Iran. In the eyes of many Iranians inside Iran, the Islamic Republic has long lost legitimacy, and the recent killings are unforgivable. But turning those grievances against the regime into an oppositional force capable of dealing with a vast and diffuse array of armed groups loyal to the state is a deep challenge.”

The state of the Iranian regime after protests