Politics

The Woman Life Freedom movement gained the biggest concessions by making the mandatory hijab a non-issue

The current uprisings did not start from existing spaces of civic and political organization

It is different from the 2023 Woman Life Freedom movement

The core issue of economic grievances and involvement of the working class is similar to 2018 and 2019 uprisings

Since 2009 large segments of Iran's population have called for down with the dictator in nearly every protest movement

Networks were established across Afghanistan Iraq Syria and Lebanon to sow instability

There are no defections in the military or security realms

The Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force is well positioned to organize militias again

The Islamic Republic is structured for siege

They are woven into a deeper idea of the state and are committed to Iran's independence

They are not just loyalists of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Paramilitary networks with hundreds of thousands of members are embedded in every corner of Iranian society

The Iranian military has a dual architecture: Artesh and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Bombing campaigns could destroy infrastructure in Iran but the US would have to fight a standing military and a system with experience in asymmetric warfare for regime change

Recent protests are similar and different from previous ones

Narges Bajoghli does not see signs of imminent regime change

The Islamic Republic government has reestablished control over Iran after protests and shows no signs of immediate collapse

Both outcomes remain fluid if leaders choose wisdom over force compromise over victory and futures defined by peace rather than rubble of past

The next revolution may already be unstoppable

The next war may not be inevitable despite threats